The Iranian Threat

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President of Iran, says that his mission in life is to complete Adolph Hitler’s work of killing Jews, plus he wants to kill Americans and wipe the state of Israel from the face of the earth. To do this, he intends to use the nuclear weapons that he is developing over the tepid objections of the United Nations.
 
Israel can strike Iran with its nuclear weapons now and Iran will likely be able to strike Israel within only a few years. In a nuclear exchange with Israel, all of Iran could be destroyed. Ahmadinejad says that he and Allah are willing to martyr Iran, if in the process all the Jews are killed and the nation of Israel is destroyed.
 
A nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran will not consist of a clean, surgical strike with pinpointed damage and destruction. It is easier and cheaper for Iran to make and deliver dirty nuclear weapons than it is clean ones.
 
The deadly effect of any nuclear device detonated over the small country of Israel would result in a significant spill over, possibly contaminating Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other Middle East nations. Are these nations suicidal enough to join Iran in its martyrdom? It’s doubtful.
 
On the other hand, will the United Nations continue to impotently stand by while Iran incinerates the Middle East? Unfortunately the answer is probably, “Yes.”
 
Even a small nuclear war could cause large parts of the Middle East, including all of Israel, to be rendered contaminated and uninhabitable for the rest of the century. This makes Israel’s choices “no-win.” We in America, on the other hand, appear to enjoy the luxury of time since it may be years before Iran’s nuclear missiles will be capable of reaching the U.S. Only then will we face Armageddon. But today, Israel faces its Armageddon.
 
Israel has to decide whether to try to destroy all of Iran’s nuclear facilities now with conventional weapons or merely to disorganize and delay bomb development for ten or so years. Using nuclear weapons now is unthinkable.

Or Israel could decide to simply rely on the U.N. to handle Iran. Based on the U.N.’s past performance, following such a scenario will lead to Israel’s death and destruction. 
 
Complicating things further is the transfer of Israeli leadership from its European founding fathers and mothers to the descendents of Middle Eastern and Russian immigrants. The former won Israel’s early wars against the combined Arab armies of the Middle East. The latter can’t even seem to stop the Hamas rabble from lobbing rockets into Israel.
 
Israel can rely on assurances from President Bush, should he give them, that he will prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. But even so, this depends on events largely out of Israel’s control and is only good through January of 2009.
 
If Senator McCain is elected President, U.S. Middle East policy will probably continue as is. But if Senator Obama becomes President, Israel may no longer be able to rely on U.S. protection. Many Jews both in Israel and the U.S. think Obama has a soft spot in his heart for Islam and things Muslim. So if Israel is going to “de-nuc” Iran, it should do it while President Bush is still in office.
 
What if Senators Obama and McCain give their private assurances that once in office they will support Israel if, out of self-defense, it is forced to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities? Israel would be comfortable with McCain’s assurances, but some in Israel feel that Obama might balk and that to ensure their own safety and survival they will have no choice but to attack Iran before Obama is sworn in as President. 
 
No matter what decision Israel makes there will be significant fall out. Nuclear fall out from such a war may contaminate much of the Middle East for a hundred years. Political fall out could permanently change the balance of power in the Middle East, scramble the power brokers at the U.N., and change U.S. domestic politics for years to come. As the price of food and oil doubles, then triples, will consumer nations of the world determine to achieve nutritional and energy security at all costs?
 
No matter what happens, the U.S. is the most powerful economic and military force in the world and will somehow survive Iran’s threats and astronomical oil and food prices. But what happens to nations like China, Mexico, Sudan, Haiti, Bangladesh and India during this period of crisis? How will they survive and what will life be like for them and their people post an Iran-Israel nuclear war?
 
Clearly a nuclear Iran is not just an Israeli or Middle East problem. Ahmadinejad’s obduracy and wrong headedness is endangering the peace and safety of the entire world. So why aren’t the world and the U.N. addressing the Iranian problem with the urgency it merits?

 

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